Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (29%) · Grizzlies at 60¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
7
Grizzlies 29%
$7.9K
$325.37
58.9¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Grizzliesavg 58.9¢ | $6.1K | $6.2K | +$64.33 | 54% 3863-3352 (7215) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Trail Blazersavg 41¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$268.46 | 54% 16927-14186 (31113) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Grizzliesavg 58¢ | $116 | $100 | -$16 | 54% 379-325 (704) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 41¢ | $41 | $50 | +$9 | 53% 337-302 (639) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 41¢ | $40.18 | $39.69 | -$0.49 | 53% 3488-3134 (6622) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 41¢ | $20.18 | $20.2 | +$0.02 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 40¢ | $3.6 | $3.65 | +$0.05 | 58% 41092-29767 (70859) |
Invested
$6,144.47
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$64.33
Record
54%
3863-3352 (7215)
Invested
$1,223
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$268.46
Record
54%
16927-14186 (31113)
Invested
$116
Value
$100
PnL
-$16
Record
54%
379-325 (704)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$41
Value
$50
PnL
+$9
Record
53%
337-302 (639)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$40.18
Value
$39.69
PnL
-$0.49
Record
53%
3488-3134 (6622)
Invested
$20.18
Value
$20.2
PnL
+$0.02
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
41092-29767 (70859)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.