Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (33%) · Grizzlies at 55¢ · $989 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
6
Grizzlies 33%
$988.58
$0.02
54¢ → 55¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494 | Grizzliesavg 54¢ | $569.82 | $569.82 | +$0 | 54% 1253-1061 (2314) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Trail Blazersavg 46¢ | $282.44 | $282.44 | +$0 | 53% 326-291 (617) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 46¢ | $78.2 | $78.2 | +$0 | 43% 3005-4028 (7033) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF<$100 | Grizzliesavg 54¢ | $54 | $54 | +$0 | 54% 375-324 (699) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.28 | +$0.02 | 47% 2109-2394 (4503) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 46¢ | $1.84 | $1.84 | -$0 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$569.82
Value
$569.82
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
1253-1061 (2314)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$282.44
Value
$282.44
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
326-291 (617)
Invested
$78.2
Value
$78.2
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
3005-4028 (7033)
Invested
$54
Value
$54
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
375-324 (699)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.02
Record
47%
2109-2394 (4503)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.84
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.