Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (83%) · Grizzlies at 51¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 30

Trail Blazers50¢Grizzlies50¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$97.26

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 50.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers50%

Grizzlies51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies5 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares12,543

Combined PnL-$97.41

Trail Blazers1 trader

Total Value$2.66

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.15

Grizzlies — 83%Trail Blazers — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$60	47% 2430-2712 (5142)
HO HomeRunHazard	Grizzliesavg 49.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$8.4	54% 16897-14158 (31055)
RollAwayTheDewARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.45	53% 326-291 (617)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 50¢	$898.07	$907.05	+$8.98
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 49¢	$437.92	$442.39	+$4.47
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$601	$564.94	-$36.06	54% 375-324 (699)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$480	$470	-$10	53% 5516-4867 (10383)
0xheavy888<$100	Grizzliesavg 47.7¢	$14.3	$14.85	+$0.25	56% 6940-5557 (12497)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 50¢	$2.51	$2.66	+$0.15	57% 13257-10098 (23355)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,880

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$60

Record

47%

2430-2712 (5142)

HomeRunHazard

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,125.39

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$8.4

Record

54%

16897-14158 (31055)

RollAwayTheDewARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,335.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.45

Record

53%

326-291 (617)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$898.0750¢+$8.98

Grizzlies$437.9249¢+$4.47

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Grizzlies

Invested

$601

Value

$564.94

PnL

-$36.06

Record

54%

375-324 (699)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Grizzlies

Invested

$480

Value

$470

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5516-4867 (10383)

0xheavy888<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$14.3

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

6940-5557 (12497)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.15

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.