Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Trail Blazers (58%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Trail Blazers (-5.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (40%) · Grizzlies at 42¢ · $846 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
5
Grizzlies 40%
$846.41
-$7.89
43¢ → 42¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Grizzliesavg 43¢ | $466.33 | $460.52 | -$5.81 | 53% 3930-3422 (7352) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Trail Blazersavg 58¢ | $321.25 | $318.55 | -$2.7 | 54% 17004-14250 (31254) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 56¢ | $56 | $56 | +$0.5 | 53% 361-319 (680) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 42¢ | $8.44 | $8.54 | +$0.1 | 43% 3532-4771 (8303) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.8 | +$0.03 | 47% 2163-2470 (4633) |
Invested
$466.33
Value
$460.52
PnL
-$5.81
Record
53%
3930-3422 (7352)
Invested
$321.25
Value
$318.55
PnL
-$2.7
Record
54%
17004-14250 (31254)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$56
Value
$56
PnL
+$0.5
Record
53%
361-319 (680)
Invested
$8.44
Value
$8.54
PnL
+$0.1
Record
43%
3532-4771 (8303)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
2163-2470 (4633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.