Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (60%) · Trail Blazers at 60¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30

Trail Blazers60¢Grizzlies40¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 60%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$409.4

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 59.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers60%

Grizzlies41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,728

Combined PnL+$48.87

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,685

Combined PnL-$458.27

Grizzlies — 40%Trail Blazers — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Grizzliesavg 40.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$32.55	54% 3863-3352 (7215)
HO HomeRunHazard	Trail Blazersavg 59.3¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$410.8	54% 16927-14186 (31113)
VeryLucky888	Trail Blazersavg 59¢	$295	$247.5	-$47.5	58% 41092-29767 (70859)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$62.16	$78.48	+$16.32	53% 3488-3134 (6622)
GH ghorrock<$100	Trail Blazersavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.97	+$0.02	57% 13272-10114 (23386)

takeormakeCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,280.13

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$32.55

Record

54%

3863-3352 (7215)

HomeRunHazard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,479.96

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$410.8

Record

54%

16927-14186 (31113)

VeryLucky888

Trail Blazers

Invested

$295

Value

$247.5

PnL

-$47.5

Record

58%

41092-29767 (70859)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$62.16

Value

$78.48

PnL

+$16.32

Record

53%

3488-3134 (6622)

ghorrock<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

13272-10114 (23386)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.