Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (33%) · Trail Blazers at 65¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Trail Blazers65¢Grizzlies35¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$25.62

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 64.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers65%

Grizzlies36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers2 traders

Total Value$529.07

Total Shares864

Combined PnL-$4.89

Grizzlies4 traders

Total Value$427.04

Total Shares968

Combined PnL-$20.73

Trail Blazers — 33%Grizzlies — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 62.7¢	$631.55	$438.84	-$4.16	—
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 62.7¢	$292.16	$300.39	-$0.2
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 36.5¢	$142.41	$138.45	-$3.96
BU BullishBarb	Trail Blazersavg 61.1¢	$394.77	$387.71	-$7.06	43% 3532-4772 (8304)
TA takeormakeCTR	Grizzliesavg 39.1¢	$397.01	$383.61	-$13.4	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 58¢	$332.17	$352.49	+$20.31	56% 2802-2227 (5029)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 58¢	$239.65	$268.57	+$28.92
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 38.6¢	$92.52	$83.91	-$8.61
RollAwayTheDew	Trail Blazersavg 64¢	$139.19	$141.37	+$2.17	53% 363-319 (682)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 42¢	$39.06	$32.55	-$6.51	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 36.3¢	$12.97	$8.78	-$0.46	57% 13427-10262 (23689)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 41¢	$2.46	$2.1	-$0.36	52% 3869-3521 (7390)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$631.55

Value

$438.84

PnL

-$4.16

Record

—

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$292.1662.7¢-$0.2

Grizzlies$142.4136.5¢-$3.96

BullishBarb

Trail Blazers

Invested

$394.77

Value

$387.71

PnL

-$7.06

Record

43%

3532-4772 (8304)

takeormakeCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$397.01

Value

$383.61

PnL

-$13.4

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

Anon455ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$332.17

Value

$352.49

PnL

+$20.31

Record

56%

2802-2227 (5029)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$239.6558¢+$28.92

Grizzlies$92.5238.6¢-$8.61

RollAwayTheDew

Trail Blazers

Invested

$139.19

Value

$141.37

PnL

+$2.17

Record

53%

363-319 (682)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$39.06

Value

$32.55

PnL

-$6.51

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$12.97

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$0.46

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.46

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.36

Record

52%

3869-3521 (7390)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.