Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (50%) · Trail Blazers at 69¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Trail Blazers69¢Grizzlies31¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$37.84

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 69¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers69%

Grizzlies31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$692.81

Total Shares997

Combined PnL+$19.58

Grizzlies4 traders

Total Value$284.14

Total Shares713

Combined PnL+$18.26

Trail Blazers — 50%Grizzlies — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 61.3¢	$570.56	$586.1	+$15.54	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 61.3¢	$339.12	$395.43	+$56.31
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 34.6¢	$231.44	$190.67	-$40.78
BU BullishBarb	Trail Blazersavg 64¢	$297.12	$292.48	-$4.64	43% 3532-4772 (8304)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 62.3¢	$376.94	$237.9	+$26.95	—
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538CTR	Grizzliesavg 37.8¢	$189	$207.5	+$18.5	68% 1449-690 (2139)
RollAwayTheDew	Trail Blazersavg 67¢	$137.86	$137.86	+$0	53% 363-319 (682)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 35¢	$37.8	$38.88	+$1.08	56% 2802-2227 (5029)
US User7429<$100	Trail Blazersavg 65¢	$27.3	$24.57	-$2.73	55% 8188-6605 (14793)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$25.2	$22.68	-$2.52	54% 98-83 (181)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 33.1¢	$13.87	$15.08	+$1.2	57% 13427-10262 (23689)

takeormakeARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$570.56

Value

$586.1

PnL

+$15.54

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$339.1261.3¢+$56.31

Grizzlies$231.4434.6¢-$40.78

BullishBarb

Trail Blazers

Invested

$297.12

Value

$292.48

PnL

-$4.64

Record

43%

3532-4772 (8304)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$376.94

Value

$237.9

PnL

+$26.95

Record

—

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$189

Value

$207.5

PnL

+$18.5

Record

68%

1449-690 (2139)

RollAwayTheDew

Trail Blazers

Invested

$137.86

Value

$137.86

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

363-319 (682)

Anon455CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$37.8

Value

$38.88

PnL

+$1.08

Record

56%

2802-2227 (5029)

User7429<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$27.3

Value

$24.57

PnL

-$2.73

Record

55%

8188-6605 (14793)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$25.2

Value

$22.68

PnL

-$2.52

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$13.87

Value

$15.08

PnL

+$1.2

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGrizzlies 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.