Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (40%) · Trail Blazers at 66¢ · $977 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
5
Trail Blazers 40%
1 arb excluded
$977.23
-$29.14
67.4¢ → 66¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 66%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 70.6¢ | $632.96 | $440.93 | +$3.7 | — |
| └ Trail Blazers leg | Trail Blazersavg 70.6¢ | $314.2 | $278.19 | -$37.15 | |
| └ Grizzlies leg | Grizzliesavg 28.1¢ | $121.89 | $162.74 | +$40.85 | |
BU BullishBarb | Trail Blazersavg 67.3¢ | $326.23 | $319.94 | -$6.29 | 43% 3532-4772 (8304) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Grizzliesavg 33.1¢ | $219.69 | $197.57 | -$22.12 | 53% 3934-3425 (7359) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 71¢ | $15.23 | $15.07 | -$0.16 | 57% 13427-10262 (23689) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 32¢ | $2.24 | $2.03 | -$0.21 | 52% 3869-3521 (7390) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 35¢ | $2.05 | $1.7 | -$0.35 | 56% 2802-2227 (5029) |
Invested
$632.96
Value
$440.93
PnL
+$3.7
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$326.23
Value
$319.94
PnL
-$6.29
Record
43%
3532-4772 (8304)
Invested
$219.69
Value
$197.57
PnL
-$22.12
Record
53%
3934-3425 (7359)
Invested
$15.23
Value
$15.07
PnL
-$0.16
Record
57%
13427-10262 (23689)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.24
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.21
Record
52%
3869-3521 (7390)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$0.35
Record
56%
2802-2227 (5029)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.