Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Grizzlies (78%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (100%) · Trail Blazers at 23¢ · $240 held · ended Oct 30

Trail Blazers23¢Grizzlies77¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 100%

Total Value

$240.14

Combined PnL

$9.4

Smart Money Entry

34.3¢ → 22.5¢

-34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 78%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers23%

Grizzlies78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$240.14

Total Shares636

Combined PnL+$9.4

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 26.5¢	$94.35	$81.53	+$8.05	—
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 37.8¢	$57.28	$76.57	+$19.29	56% 2802-2227 (5029)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 35.2¢	$49.69	$43.77	-$5.92	43% 3532-4772 (8304)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 45¢	$46.85	$32.76	-$14.09	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 31.6¢	$3.44	$5.5	+$2.06	52% 3869-3521 (7390)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$94.35

Value

$81.53

PnL

+$8.05

Record

—

Anon455CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$57.28

Value

$76.57

PnL

+$19.29

Record

56%

2802-2227 (5029)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$49.69

Value

$43.77

PnL

-$5.92

Record

43%

3532-4772 (8304)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$46.85

Value

$32.76

PnL

-$14.09

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3.44

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$2.06

Record

52%

3869-3521 (7390)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Grizzlies 78%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.