Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (31%) · Grizzlies at 74¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 30

Trail Blazers27¢Grizzlies73¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 31%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.9K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 73.5¢

+36% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

4 of 13 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers27%

Grizzlies74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies4 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares21,424

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Trail Blazers9 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares23,197

Combined PnL-$747.72

Grizzlies — 31%Trail Blazers — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Grizzlies) and the top 1000 (10 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

whaleTrail Blazers 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Grizzliesavg 54¢	$11.5K	$14.8K	+$3.3K	49% 690-725 (1415)
ET ethanazCTR	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$104.65	52% 660-605 (1265)
TO torta.techCTR	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$60.77	63% 8088-4821 (12909)
NooseracCTR	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$2.6K	$1.7K	-$861.03	52% 5751-5327 (11078)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 38.6¢	$664.01	$695.92	+$31.9	56% 2802-2227 (5029)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 38.6¢	$413.48	$503.48	+$90
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 69¢	$250.54	$192.44	-$58.1
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 59.9¢	$465.06	$461.32	+$1.92	—
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 59.9¢	$264.03	$304.31	+$40.28
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 38.5¢	$195.15	$157.02	-$38.36
TA takeormakeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 42¢	$288.12	$217.27	-$70.85	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$99.99	$102.17	+$2.17	53% 6117-5362 (11479)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 25¢	$24.5	$46.06	+$21.56	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 39¢	$40.56	$34.84	-$5.72	43% 3532-4772 (8304)
GH ghorrock<$100	Grizzliesavg 60¢	$32.7	$32.38	-$0.32	57% 13427-10262 (23689)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Grizzliesavg 60¢	$27	$23.85	-$3.15	58% 28303-20884 (49187)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 39.2¢	$15.32	$18.38	+$3.06	52% 3869-3521 (7390)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 37¢	$14.43	$12.09	-$2.34	54% 98-83 (181)
VeryLucky888<$100	Grizzliesavg 60¢	$3.72	$0.58	+$0.09	58% 41361-29991 (71352)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Grizzlies

Invested

$11,526.61

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

49%

690-725 (1415)

ethanazCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4,813.75

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$104.65

Record

52%

660-605 (1265)

torta.techCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,795.42

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$60.77

Record

63%

8088-4821 (12909)

NooseracCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,555.3

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$861.03

Record

52%

5751-5327 (11078)

Anon455ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$664.01

Value

$695.92

PnL

+$31.9

Record

56%

2802-2227 (5029)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$413.4838.6¢+$90

Grizzlies$250.5469¢-$58.1

38791873984189ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$465.06

Value

$461.32

PnL

+$1.92

Record

—

Both legs:

Grizzlies$264.0359.9¢+$40.28

Trail Blazers$195.1538.5¢-$38.36

takeormakeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$288.12

Value

$217.27

PnL

-$70.85

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$99.99

Value

$102.17

PnL

+$2.17

Record

53%

6117-5362 (11479)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$24.5

Value

$46.06

PnL

+$21.56

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$40.56

Value

$34.84

PnL

-$5.72

Record

43%

3532-4772 (8304)

ghorrock<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$32.7

Value

$32.38

PnL

-$0.32

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$27

Value

$23.85

PnL

-$3.15

Record

58%

28303-20884 (49187)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$15.32

Value

$18.38

PnL

+$3.06

Record

52%

3869-3521 (7390)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$14.43

Value

$12.09

PnL

-$2.34

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

VeryLucky888<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$3.72

Value

$0.58

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

41361-29991 (71352)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

4 of 13 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Grizzlies) and the top 1000 (10 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

whaleTrail Blazers 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrizzlies 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.