Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (73%) · Trail Blazers at 72¢ · $44K held · ends Oct 30

Grizzlies28¢Trail Blazers72¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$44.0K

Combined PnL

-$71

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 71.5¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies28%

Trail Blazers72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers11 traders

Total Value$27.8K

Total Shares38,852

Combined PnL+$154.35

Grizzlies4 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares54,993

Combined PnL-$225.35

Trail Blazers — 73%Grizzlies — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RollAwayTheDew	Trail Blazersavg 71¢	$14.2K	$14.3K	+$100	53% 326-291 (617)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Grizzliesavg 29¢	$14.5K	$14.2K	-$250	54% 574-493 (1067)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Trail Blazersavg 71¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$30	47% 2430-2712 (5142)
HO HomeRunHazard	Trail Blazersavg 71.5¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$1.23	54% 16897-14158 (31055)
unknowngambler	Trail Blazersavg 73¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0	57% 392-291 (683)
HI hi774c	Trail Blazersavg 71¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15.21	52% 4659-4374 (9033)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Trail Blazersavg 71¢	$710	$715	+$5	53% 5516-4867 (10383)
TA takeormakeCTR	Grizzliesavg 27.9¢	$664.96	$678.87	+$13.91	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Grizzliesavg 28¢	$666.24	$678.13	+$11.9	50% 6832-6841 (13673)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 27.8¢	$451.52	$486.08	-$8.76	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 27.8¢	$286.47	$293.25	-$10.11
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 71¢	$191.48	$192.83	+$1.35
SE sentrio	Trail Blazersavg 71¢	$275.59	$277.53	+$1.94	50% 24869-24570 (49439)
HRTrading	Trail Blazersavg 71¢	$148.39	$149.44	+$1.05	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
GH ghorrock	Trail Blazersavg 71.5¢	$121.12	$121.11	-$0	57% 13257-10098 (23355)
EF 0xefde...6505CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 29¢	$67.18	$66.02	-$1.16	—
0xheavy888<$100	Trail Blazersavg 71.7¢	$21.5	$21.45	-$0.05	56% 6940-5557 (12497)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Trail Blazersavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.57	-$0.03	47% 2109-2394 (4503)

RollAwayTheDew

Trail Blazers

Invested

$14,200

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

53%

326-291 (617)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$14,499.99

Value

$14.2K

PnL

-$250

Record

54%

574-493 (1067)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4,260

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$30

Record

47%

2430-2712 (5142)

HomeRunHazard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3,019.57

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.23

Record

54%

16897-14158 (31055)

unknowngambler

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,761.92

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

392-291 (683)

hi774c

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15.21

Record

52%

4659-4374 (9033)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Trail Blazers

Invested

$710

Value

$715

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5516-4867 (10383)

takeormakeCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$664.96

Value

$678.87

PnL

+$13.91

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

Forecastication2CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$666.24

Value

$678.13

PnL

+$11.9

Record

50%

6832-6841 (13673)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$451.52

Value

$486.08

PnL

-$8.76

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$286.4727.8¢-$10.11

Trail Blazers$191.4871¢+$1.35

sentrio

Trail Blazers

Invested

$275.59

Value

$277.53

PnL

+$1.94

Record

50%

24869-24570 (49439)

HRTrading

Trail Blazers

Invested

$148.39

Value

$149.44

PnL

+$1.05

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

ghorrock

Trail Blazers

Invested

$121.12

Value

$121.11

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

0xefde...6505CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$67.18

Value

$66.02

PnL

-$1.16

Record

—

0xheavy888<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$21.5

Value

$21.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

56%

6940-5557 (12497)

ameisgoat11<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2109-2394 (4503)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.