Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$104.48

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 49.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,584

Combined PnL+$113.98

Under4 traders

Total Value$536.41

Total Shares1,062

Combined PnL-$9.5

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 45.7¢	$740.3	$801.69	+$61.38	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 51.4¢	$508.55	$500.13	-$8.42	44% 391-495 (886)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 46¢	$315.22	$335.78	+$20.56	34% 735-1404 (2139)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 47¢	$310.2	$323.4	+$13.2	35% 735-1379 (2114)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 45¢	$120.15	$130.83	+$10.68	45% 214-259 (473)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$91.8	$99.96	+$8.16	68% 2627-1220 (3847)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$57.9	$57.9	-$0	43% 808-1065 (1873)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 53.7¢	$20.37	$18.96	-$1.42	53% 388-339 (727)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$12.25	$12.25	-$0	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 50¢	$10	$10.2	+$0.2	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GC GC-P<$100	Underavg 50¢	$6.99	$7.13	+$0.14	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.45	+$0	59% 3648-2489 (6137)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$740.3

Value

$801.69

PnL

+$61.38

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$508.55

Value

$500.13

PnL

-$8.42

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$315.22

Value

$335.78

PnL

+$20.56

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$310.2

Value

$323.4

PnL

+$13.2

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$120.15

Value

$130.83

PnL

+$10.68

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91.8

Value

$99.96

PnL

+$8.16

Record

68%

2627-1220 (3847)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.9

Value

$57.9

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$20.37

Value

$18.96

PnL

-$1.42

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.25

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

GC-P<$100

Under

Invested

$6.99

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0.14

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.