Grizzlies vs. Pelicans

14 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (47%) · Grizzlies at 56¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 14

Grizzlies56¢Pelicans44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$48.2K

Combined PnL

-$209.64

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 56.5¢

-4% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

14 of 30 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies56%

Pelicans44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies14 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares39,580

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Pelicans16 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares49,296

Combined PnL+$910.35

Grizzlies — 47%Pelicans — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPelicans 52% · 21

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 53% · 30

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Greedo	Grizzliesavg 60¢	$7.5K	$7.0K	-$500	49% 191-195 (386)
AP AppleTiiime	Grizzliesavg 61¢	$7.6K	$7.0K	-$625	50% 96-95 (191)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pelicansavg 41.3¢	$6.7K	$6.9K	+$172.02	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Pelicansavg 40¢	$4.4K	$4.7K	+$326.97	45% 214-259 (473)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Pelicansavg 41.5¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$106.44	5% 9-172 (181)
DO DolphinBaller	Grizzliesavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0	13% 17-116 (133)
RA Raisuu	Grizzliesavg 56¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$24.41	50% 26-26 (52)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Pelicansavg 44¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$55.6	35% 749-1385 (2134)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Pelicansavg 40¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$166.14	53% 535-466 (1001)
GA Gaditima	Grizzliesavg 56¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$0	47% 224-251 (475)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 58.6¢	$3.8K	$2.0K	+$15.51	53% 1030-921 (1951)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 58.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$84.61
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 39.7¢	$793.32	$860	+$100.11
HI hi774cCTR	Pelicansavg 39.4¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$158.2	21% 156-572 (728)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 59¢	$785.84	$775.86	-$9.98	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 59¢	$590	$560	-$30
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 39¢	$195.84	$215.86	+$20.02
GC GC-PARB<$100	Grizzliesavg 59¢	$785	$775	-$10	33% 251-499 (750)
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 59¢	$590	$560	-$30
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 39¢	$195	$215	+$20
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	Pelicansavg 43¢	$279.65	$282.9	+$3.25	62% 21-13 (34)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Pelicansavg 41.5¢	$223.43	$231.39	+$7.96	48% 677-745 (1422)
SE sentrio	Grizzliesavg 58¢	$146.91	$141.84	-$5.07	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LI LimousinCTR	Pelicansavg 41.8¢	$125.49	$129.2	+$3.71	35% 735-1379 (2114)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Pelicansavg 40¢	$113.01	$121.49	+$8.48	36% 761-1361 (2122)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 40¢	$69.22	$74.41	+$5.19	34% 735-1404 (2139)
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100	Grizzliesavg 61¢	$61	$56	-$5	40% 8-12 (20)
leflaive<$100	Grizzliesavg 61¢	$61	$56	-$5	48% 11-12 (23)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 44¢	$55.02	$54.39	-$0.63	44% 391-495 (886)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 40¢	$45.08	$48.46	+$3.38	22% 24-84 (108)
SU suntori<$100	Grizzliesavg 61¢	$52.37	$48.08	-$4.29	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

Greedo

Grizzlies

Invested

$7,500

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$500

Record

49%

191-195 (386)

AppleTiiime

Grizzlies

Invested

$7,624.97

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$625

Record

50%

96-95 (191)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$6,733.5

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$172.02

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

Forecastication2CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$4,359.6

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$326.97

Record

45%

214-259 (473)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$2,999.64

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$106.44

Record

9-172 (181)

DolphinBaller

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,799.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

13%

17-116 (133)

Raisuu

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,734.12

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$24.41

Record

50%

26-26 (52)

LightParadoxCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$2,526.18

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$55.6

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$2,215.21

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$166.14

Record

53%

535-466 (1001)

Gaditima

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,240

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

224-251 (475)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$3,836.87

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$15.51

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$1,171.4458.6¢-$84.61

Pelicans$793.3239.7¢+$100.11

hi774cCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,746.17

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$158.2

Record

21%

156-572 (728)

NM-PARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$785.84

Value

$775.86

PnL

-$9.98

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

Both legs:

Grizzlies$59059¢-$30

Pelicans$195.8439¢+$20.02

GC-PARB<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$785

Value

$775

PnL

-$10

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

Both legs:

Invested

$279.65

Value

$282.9

PnL

+$3.25

Record

62%

21-13 (34)

SnakeBallCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$223.43

Value

$231.39

PnL

+$7.96

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

sentrio

Grizzlies

Invested

$146.91

Value

$141.84

PnL

-$5.07

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LimousinCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$125.49

Value

$129.2

PnL

+$3.71

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

MadridTimeCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$113.01

Value

$121.49

PnL

+$8.48

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$69.22

Value

$74.41

PnL

+$5.19

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$61

Value

$56

PnL

-$5

Record

40%

8-12 (20)

leflaive<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$61

Value

$56

PnL

-$5

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$55.02

Value

$54.39

PnL

-$0.63

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$45.08

Value

$48.46

PnL

+$3.38

Record

22%

24-84 (108)

suntori<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$52.37

Value

$48.08

PnL

-$4.29

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

14 of 30 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPelicans 52% · 21

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 53% · 30

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.