Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 226.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 53¢ · $858 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
9
Over 44%
$858.1
$5.55
51.9¢ → 53¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 52.3¢ | $437.68 | $443.44 | +$5.76 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $122.88 | $120.32 | -$2.56 | 37% 1333-2226 (3559) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $120 | $117.5 | -$2.5 | 53% 1883-1643 (3526) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $68.61 | $72.72 | +$4.12 | 38% 1314-2163 (3477) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $48 | $50.88 | +$2.88 | 38% 1338-2179 (3517) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 55.9¢ | $21.45 | $20.35 | -$1.1 | 46% 621-730 (1351) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47.5¢ | $19 | $18.8 | -$0.2 | 56% 663-529 (1192) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $12.5 | $11.75 | -$0.75 | 50% 2174-2194 (4368) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.35 | -$0.1 | 43% 851-1135 (1986) |
Invested
$437.68
Value
$443.44
PnL
+$5.76
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$122.88
Value
$120.32
PnL
-$2.56
Record
37%
1333-2226 (3559)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$120
Value
$117.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
53%
1883-1643 (3526)
Invested
$68.61
Value
$72.72
PnL
+$4.12
Record
38%
1314-2163 (3477)
Invested
$48
Value
$50.88
PnL
+$2.88
Record
38%
1338-2179 (3517)
Invested
$21.45
Value
$20.35
PnL
-$1.1
Record
46%
621-730 (1351)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$19
Value
$18.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
56%
663-529 (1192)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$11.75
PnL
-$0.75
Record
50%
2174-2194 (4368)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0.1
Record
43%
851-1135 (1986)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.