Spread: Lakers (-9.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (25%) · Lakers at 62¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
4
Lakers 25%
1 arb excluded
$8.4K
-$6.98
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | Lakersavg 61.5¢ | $5.9K | $5.8K | -$48.8 | 59% 17-12 (29) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bucksavg 38.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$34.33 | 57% 3183-2408 (5591) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Bucksavg 38¢ | $407.8 | $418.53 | +$10.73 | 39% 136-217 (353) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Bucksavg 39¢ | $252.83 | $249.59 | -$3.24 | 31% 363-824 (1187) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Lakersavg 61¢ | $181.42 | $151.39 | +$2.34 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 61¢ | $92.72 | $93.48 | +$0.76 | |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 38¢ | $57.16 | $57.91 | +$1.58 |
Invested
$5,892.6
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$48.8
Record
59%
17-12 (29)
Invested
$1,712.57
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$34.33
Record
57%
3183-2408 (5591)
Invested
$407.8
Value
$418.53
PnL
+$10.73
Record
39%
136-217 (353)
Invested
$252.83
Value
$249.59
PnL
-$3.24
Record
31%
363-824 (1187)
Invested
$181.42
Value
$151.39
PnL
+$2.34
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.