Spread: Lakers (-5.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (25%) · Lakers at 75¢ · $853 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
4
Lakers 25%
1 arb excluded
$852.8
-$13.86
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 75%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bigbeliever | Lakersavg 76¢ | $448.39 | $439.54 | -$8.85 | 59% 17-12 (29) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Lakersavg 74¢ | $335.69 | $346.4 | +$10.71 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 74¢ | $184.26 | $185.51 | +$1.25 | |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 24¢ | $151.43 | $160.89 | +$9.46 | |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 26¢ | $67.34 | $62.16 | -$5.18 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 23¢ | $3.29 | $3.43 | +$0.14 | 38% 136-221 (357) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.28 | +$0.02 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
Invested
$448.39
Value
$439.54
PnL
-$8.85
Record
59%
17-12 (29)
Invested
$335.69
Value
$346.4
PnL
+$10.71
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.34
Value
$62.16
PnL
-$5.18
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$3.43
PnL
+$0.14
Record
38%
136-221 (357)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.02
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.