Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lakers, while the market favors Bucks (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lakers (-16.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (60%) · Lakers at 42¢ · $785 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
5
Lakers 60%
1 arb excluded
$784.52
$33.5
38.5¢ → 41.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Bucks 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Lakersavg 43.2¢ | $526.57 | $319.66 | -$35.17 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 43.2¢ | $192.28 | $184.67 | -$7.61 | |
| └ Bucks leg | Bucksavg 62.5¢ | $144.18 | $134.99 | -$27.56 | |
VE VenusianCTR | Lakersavg 38¢ | $146.01 | $165.22 | +$19.21 | 31% 410-923 (1333) |
LI LimousinCTR | Lakersavg 37¢ | $97.68 | $113.52 | +$15.84 | 30% 401-920 (1321) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Bucksavg 57¢ | $107.73 | $110.57 | +$2.83 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Lakersavg 42¢ | $73.5 | $72.63 | -$0.88 | 59% 3478-2370 (5848) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Bucksavg 62¢ | $44.02 | $2.93 | -$3.52 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
Invested
$526.57
Value
$319.66
PnL
-$35.17
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Both legs:
Invested
$146.01
Value
$165.22
PnL
+$19.21
Record
31%
410-923 (1333)
Invested
$97.68
Value
$113.52
PnL
+$15.84
Record
30%
401-920 (1321)
Invested
$107.73
Value
$110.57
PnL
+$2.83
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$73.5
Value
$72.63
PnL
-$0.88
Record
59%
3478-2370 (5848)
Invested
$44.02
Value
$2.93
PnL
-$3.52
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.