Spread: Lakers (-15.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (50%) · Bucks at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Lakers44¢Bucks56¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$8.24

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 56.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lakers44%

Bucks56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks3 traders

Total Value$724.59

Total Shares1,244

Combined PnL+$16.54

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$596.6

Total Shares1,449

Combined PnL-$24.79

Bucks — 50%Lakers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Bucksavg 56¢	$421.86	$425.63	+$3.77	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
FU Fujimi888CTR	Lakersavg 44¢	$368.85	$364.66	-$4.19	— 3-7 (10)
38 38791873984189	Bucksavg 58.4¢	$237.51	$252.34	+$14.83	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
VE VenusianCTR	Lakersavg 41.5¢	$180.79	$165.44	-$15.34	30% 377-862 (1239)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Lakersavg 41¢	$71.75	$66.5	-$5.25	30% 372-861 (1233)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bucksavg 58.3¢	$56.51	$46.63	-$2.05	48% 659-706 (1365)

HomeRunHazard

Bucks

Invested

$421.86

Value

$425.63

PnL

+$3.77

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

Fujimi888CTR

Lakers

Invested

$368.85

Value

$364.66

PnL

-$4.19

Record

—

3-7 (10)

38791873984189

Bucks

Invested

$237.51

Value

$252.34

PnL

+$14.83

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

VenusianCTR

Lakers

Invested

$180.79

Value

$165.44

PnL

-$15.34

Record

30%

377-862 (1239)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$71.75

Value

$66.5

PnL

-$5.25

Record

30%

372-861 (1233)

Pan9X<$100

Bucks

Invested

$56.51

Value

$46.63

PnL

-$2.05

Record

48%

659-706 (1365)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.