Spread: Lakers (-11.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (33%) · Lakers at 54¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
6
Lakers 33%
$7.0K
-$25.54
53¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AP AppleTiiime | Lakersavg 53¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$0.18 | 53% 86-76 (162) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bucksavg 46.9¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$23.99 | 57% 3183-2408 (5591) |
SE sentrioCTR | Bucksavg 47¢ | $155.9 | $154.36 | -$1.54 | 37% 325-557 (882) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Lakersavg 54¢ | $40.17 | $39.8 | -$0.37 | 46% 255-304 (559) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 46¢ | $20.16 | $20.37 | +$0.21 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.33 | -$0.02 | 30% 250-585 (835) |
Invested
$3,850.85
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
86-76 (162)
Invested
$2,952.88
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$23.99
Record
57%
3183-2408 (5591)
Invested
$155.9
Value
$154.36
PnL
-$1.54
Record
37%
325-557 (882)
Invested
$40.17
Value
$39.8
PnL
-$0.37
Record
46%
255-304 (559)
Invested
$20.16
Value
$20.37
PnL
+$0.21
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
250-585 (835)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.