Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 229.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$63.82

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 51.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,737

Combined PnL+$63.99

Over2 traders

Total Value$23.98

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$0.17

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Underavg 49¢	$609.45	$634.32	+$24.88	52% 4656-4364 (9020)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Underavg 49¢	$507.12	$527.82	+$20.7	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51¢	$394.49	$398.36	+$3.87	54% 16863-14141 (31004)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 49¢	$310.36	$323.02	+$12.67	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$21.93	$21.48	-$0.22	54% 375-322 (697)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 55¢	$15.4	$14.28	-$0.98	58% 28120-20725 (48845)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$9.41	$9.69	+$0.28	57% 13138-10013 (23151)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 49.5¢	$249.48	$4.12	+$2.58	58% 40750-29469 (70219)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.5	+$0.05	47% 2041-2343 (4384)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$609.45

Value

$634.32

PnL

+$24.88

Record

52%

4656-4364 (9020)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Under

Invested

$507.12

Value

$527.82

PnL

+$20.7

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$394.49

Value

$398.36

PnL

+$3.87

Record

54%

16863-14141 (31004)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$310.36

Value

$323.02

PnL

+$12.67

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.93

Value

$21.48

PnL

-$0.22

Record

54%

375-322 (697)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$15.4

Value

$14.28

PnL

-$0.98

Record

58%

28120-20725 (48845)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$9.41

Value

$9.69

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

13138-10013 (23151)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$249.48

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$2.58

Record

58%

40750-29469 (70219)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

2041-2343 (4384)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.