Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
1 arb excluded
$3.4K
$93.57
56.3¢ → 58.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 55.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$1.38 | 54% 16875-14147 (31022) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55.7¢ | $870.9 | $914.47 | +$43.57 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $360.49 | $318.31 | -$42.19 | |
BU BullishBarb | Overavg 58.2¢ | $886.63 | $975.56 | +$88.93 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
MO mooseborzoii | Overavg 54.4¢ | $801.72 | $840.75 | +$39.03 | 50% 1138-1132 (2270) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $337.5 | $311.25 | -$26.25 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Underavg 40.6¢ | $73.98 | $65.52 | -$8.46 | 52% 318-288 (606) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 58.4¢ | $9.85 | $4.13 | +$0.32 | 57% 13182-10033 (23215) |
Invested
$1,231.39
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$1.38
Record
54%
16875-14147 (31022)
Both legs:
Invested
$886.63
Value
$975.56
PnL
+$88.93
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
Invested
$801.72
Value
$840.75
PnL
+$39.03
Record
50%
1138-1132 (2270)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$337.5
Value
$311.25
PnL
-$26.25
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$73.98
Value
$65.52
PnL
-$8.46
Record
52%
318-288 (606)
Invested
$9.85
Value
$4.13
PnL
+$0.32
Record
57%
13182-10033 (23215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.