Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$16.63
60.5¢ → 61.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$32.68 | 54% 16875-14147 (31022) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 42¢ | $787.59 | $740.71 | -$46.88 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 58¢ | $329.44 | $343.64 | +$14.2 | |
BU BullishBarb | Overavg 60¢ | $529.26 | $533.5 | +$4.24 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
 poshposh | Overavg 64¢ | $122.66 | $95.83 | -$26.83 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $63.51 | $64.6 | +$1.09 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $12.6 | $17.5 | +$4.9 | 50% 6813-6827 (13640) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $7.58 | $7.54 | -$0.04 | 57% 13182-10033 (23215) |
Invested
$1,117.03
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$32.68
Record
54%
16875-14147 (31022)
Both legs:
Invested
$529.26
Value
$533.5
PnL
+$4.24
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
poshposhInvested
$122.66
Value
$95.83
PnL
-$26.83
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$63.51
Value
$64.6
PnL
+$1.09
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$17.5
PnL
+$4.9
Record
50%
6813-6827 (13640)
Invested
$7.58
Value
$7.54
PnL
-$0.04
Record
57%
13182-10033 (23215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.