Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (95%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 217.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 5.0¢ · $554 held · ended Oct 29

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$553.77

Combined PnL

-$108.73

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 5¢

-91% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$365.49

Total Shares858

Combined PnL-$110.23

Under3 traders

Total Value$11.1

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$1.5

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BullishBarbCTR	Overavg 65¢	$293.34	$282.05	-$11.28	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$197.72	$177.18	-$20.54	54% 10478-9105 (19583)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.7¢	$148.72	$115.44	-$33.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$49	$61.74	+$12.74
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 44.8¢	$182.38	$83.43	-$98.95	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 69.4¢	$3.27	$4.22	+$0.95	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 34¢	$3.18	$3.51	+$0.33	57% 13257-10098 (23355)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 35¢	$3.15	$3.38	+$0.23	50% 6832-6841 (13673)

BullishBarbCTR

Over

Invested

$293.34

Value

$282.05

PnL

-$11.28

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$197.72

Value

$177.18

PnL

-$20.54

Record

54%

10478-9105 (19583)

Both legs:

Over$148.7247.7¢-$33.28

Under$4950¢+$12.74

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$182.38

Value

$83.43

PnL

-$98.95

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.27

Value

$4.22

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$0.33

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

6832-6841 (13673)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.2%

5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1505.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

1605.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.