Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 213.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 89¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 29

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 88.5¢

+88% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares9,939

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,805

Combined PnL-$274.28

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 48.1¢	$3.7K	$6.4K	+$2.6K	54% 16897-14158 (31055)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$2.51	49% 569-596 (1165)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.3¢	$978.45	$1.0K	+$66.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$970.43	$906.35	-$64.09
BU BullishBarbCTR	Overavg 74.6¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$14.91	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 44.7¢	$991.89	$1.2K	+$173.18	54% 10478-9105 (19583)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 43.9¢	$427.13	$218.93	-$208.2	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 25¢	$25	$29	+$4	53% 11468-9984 (21452)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 47.8¢	$73.41	$22.25	-$51.16	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 49¢	$22.54	$13.34	-$9.2	63% 7987-4779 (12766)
WO woshikd99<$100	Underavg 51¢	$15.3	$8.7	-$6.6	51% 35-33 (68)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$1.45	-$1.05	53% 6109-5348 (11457)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,696.8

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

54%

16897-14158 (31055)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,948.88

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$2.51

Record

49%

569-596 (1165)

Both legs:

Under$978.4547.3¢+$66.59

Over$970.4353¢-$64.09

BullishBarbCTR

Over

Invested

$1,270.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$14.91

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$991.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$173.18

Record

54%

10478-9105 (19583)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$427.13

Value

$218.93

PnL

-$208.2

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$25

Value

$29

PnL

+$4

Record

53%

11468-9984 (21452)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.41

Value

$22.25

PnL

-$51.16

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$22.54

Value

$13.34

PnL

-$9.2

Record

63%

7987-4779 (12766)

woshikd99<$100

Under

Invested

$15.3

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$6.6

Record

51%

35-33 (68)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.