Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 211.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 85¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$184.88

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 84.5¢

+90% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,620

Combined PnL+$263.14

Over4 traders

Total Value$730.28

Total Shares1,803

Combined PnL-$78.25

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Underavg 41¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$294.88	52% 5726-5291 (11017)
TO torta.tech	Underavg 48.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$76.55	63% 7987-4779 (12766)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 43.9¢	$548	$480.52	-$67.48	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 50¢	$255.62	$272.84	+$17.23	49% 569-596 (1165)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 38.7¢	$177.38	$209.02	+$31.64	54% 10478-9105 (19583)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.7¢	$119.28	$152.46	+$33.18
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.9¢	$58.1	$56.56	-$1.54
BU BullishBarbCTR	Overavg 76.6¢	$205.44	$206.68	+$1.24	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$68.11	$63.19	-$4.91	53% 6109-5348 (11457)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 20¢	$21.66	$54.15	+$32.49	50% 6832-6841 (13673)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$46	$33.81	-$12.19	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 80¢	$9.09	$9.27	+$0.18	57% 13257-10098 (23355)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$1,343.35

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$294.88

Record

52%

5726-5291 (11017)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$1,322.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$76.55

Record

63%

7987-4779 (12766)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$548

Value

$480.52

PnL

-$67.48

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$255.62

Value

$272.84

PnL

+$17.23

Record

49%

569-596 (1165)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$177.38

Value

$209.02

PnL

+$31.64

Record

54%

10478-9105 (19583)

Both legs:

Under$119.2838.7¢+$33.18

Over$58.151.9¢-$1.54

BullishBarbCTR

Over

Invested

$205.44

Value

$206.68

PnL

+$1.24

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$68.11

Value

$63.19

PnL

-$4.91

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$21.66

Value

$54.15

PnL

+$32.49

Record

50%

6832-6841 (13673)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46

Value

$33.81

PnL

-$12.19

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.09

Value

$9.27

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.