Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 207.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 71¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 29

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$728.38

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 70.5¢

+46% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares22,586

Combined PnL+$683.33

Over2 traders

Total Value$691.06

Total Shares1,587

Combined PnL+$45.05

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Underavg 49¢	$10.3K	$10.8K	+$523.71	52% 5726-5291 (11017)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 44.5¢	$592.88	$646.78	+$53.9	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
TO torta.tech	Underavg 40¢	$496.8	$621	+$124.2	63% 7987-4779 (12766)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 49¢	$54.62	$57.41	+$2.79	49% 569-596 (1165)
BU BullishBarb<$100	Underavg 49¢	$47.53	$48.5	+$0.97	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$53.13	$44.28	-$8.86	54% 10478-9105 (19583)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 40¢	$24.84	$31.05	+$6.21	53% 6109-5348 (11457)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 14¢	$8.26	$29.5	+$21.24	50% 6832-6841 (13673)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 65.9¢	$13.61	$14.61	+$1.01	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
WO woshikd99<$100	Underavg 53¢	$15.37	$14.5	-$0.87	51% 35-33 (68)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 17¢	$1.97	$5.79	+$3.82	57% 13257-10098 (23355)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.9	$5.15	+$0.25	50% 7714-7724 (15438)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$10,264.78

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$523.71

Record

52%

5726-5291 (11017)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$592.88

Value

$646.78

PnL

+$53.9

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$496.8

Value

$621

PnL

+$124.2

Record

63%

7987-4779 (12766)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$54.62

Value

$57.41

PnL

+$2.79

Record

49%

569-596 (1165)

BullishBarb<$100

Under

Invested

$47.53

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$0.97

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.13

Value

$44.28

PnL

-$8.86

Record

54%

10478-9105 (19583)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$24.84

Value

$31.05

PnL

+$6.21

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$8.26

Value

$29.5

PnL

+$21.24

Record

50%

6832-6841 (13673)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$13.61

Value

$14.61

PnL

+$1.01

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

woshikd99<$100

Under

Invested

$15.37

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$0.87

Record

51%

35-33 (68)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$1.97

Value

$5.79

PnL

+$3.82

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

7714-7724 (15438)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.