Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 205.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 61¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 29

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$176.61

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 60.5¢

+31% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares8,086

Combined PnL-$184.47

Under8 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares8,876

Combined PnL+$7.86

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 47.2¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$158.53	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
Nooserac	Underavg 51¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$37.85	52% 5726-5291 (11017)
stringXXCTR	Overavg 45.9¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$343	50% 95-94 (189)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 46¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$331.67	54% 10478-9105 (19583)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Overavg 66.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$342.72	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$570.45	$840.38	+$130.8
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.2¢	$751.75	$278.23	-$473.52
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49.9¢	$561.95	$536.27	-$25.68	49% 569-596 (1165)
TO torta.tech	Underavg 35.1¢	$590.37	$311.17	-$279.2	63% 7987-4779 (12766)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$59.26	$90.68	+$31.42	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
WO woshikd99<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$28.5	$28.5	+$0	51% 35-33 (68)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 36.1¢	$30.36	$15.56	-$14.8	53% 6109-5348 (11457)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 13¢	$5.46	$7.77	+$2.31	50% 6832-6841 (13673)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,760.23

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$158.53

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$1,930.44

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$37.85

Record

52%

5726-5291 (11017)

stringXXCTR

Over

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$343

Record

50%

95-94 (189)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$1,004.17

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$331.67

Record

54%

10478-9105 (19583)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,322.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$342.72

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

Both legs:

Under$570.4551.2¢+$130.8

Over$751.7566.2¢-$473.52

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$561.95

Value

$536.27

PnL

-$25.68

Record

49%

569-596 (1165)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$590.37

Value

$311.17

PnL

-$279.2

Record

63%

7987-4779 (12766)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$59.26

Value

$90.68

PnL

+$31.42

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

woshikd99<$100

Under

Invested

$28.5

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

35-33 (68)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$30.36

Value

$15.56

PnL

-$14.8

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$5.46

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$2.31

Record

50%

6832-6841 (13673)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.