Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 201.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 44¢ · $36K held · ended Oct 29

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.5K

Combined PnL

-$171.37

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 43.5¢

-15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares18,700

Combined PnL+$57.31

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares10,477

Combined PnL-$228.69

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$20.7K	$20.5K	-$199.51	49% 569-596 (1165)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.7¢	$13.9K	$13.0K	-$886.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.6¢	$6.8K	$7.5K	+$686.99
VP VPenguinCTR	Underavg 51¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$48.57	44% 796-1029 (1825)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 52¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$30	49% 31-32 (63)
TA takeormake	Overavg 53.7¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$237.03	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$97.85	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$692.8	$849.3	+$156.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.5¢	$632.6	$573.95	-$58.64
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$29.8	52% 658-612 (1270)
EN ENDBOSSLLC	Overavg 23¢	$766.59	$733.26	-$33.33	41% 258-365 (623)
latvian.demon	Overavg 40¢	$400	$395	-$5	54% 648-552 (1200)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 39.4¢	$285.7	$286.44	+$0.74	54% 10478-9105 (19583)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45.6¢	$258.97	$264.02	+$5.05	54% 16897-14158 (31055)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Overavg 40¢	$200.52	$198.8	-$1.72	59% 30140-20887 (51027)
HRTrading	Overavg 28.2¢	$119.18	$166.77	+$47.59	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$85.75	$91.16	+$5.41	51% 35-33 (68)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$51.24	$49.99	-$1.25	54% 1175-997 (2172)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$27.54	$27.27	-$0.27	50% 3728-3701 (7429)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 91¢	$6.6	$6.67	+$0.07	57% 13257-10098 (23355)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$20,719.53

Value

$20.5K

PnL

-$199.51

Record

49%

569-596 (1165)

Both legs:

Under$13,882.6749.7¢-$886.5

Over$6,836.8648.6¢+$686.99

VPenguinCTR

Under

Invested

$4,954.38

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$48.57

Record

44%

796-1029 (1825)

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$3,120

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$30

Record

49%

31-32 (63)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$2,434.71

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$237.03

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,325.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$97.85

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

Both legs:

Under$692.849.4¢+$156.5

Over$632.643.5¢-$58.64

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$1,031.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$29.8

Record

52%

658-612 (1270)

ENDBOSSLLC

Over

Invested

$766.59

Value

$733.26

PnL

-$33.33

Record

41%

258-365 (623)

latvian.demon

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$395

PnL

-$5

Record

54%

648-552 (1200)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$285.7

Value

$286.44

PnL

+$0.74

Record

54%

10478-9105 (19583)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$258.97

Value

$264.02

PnL

+$5.05

Record

54%

16897-14158 (31055)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Over

Invested

$200.52

Value

$198.8

PnL

-$1.72

Record

59%

30140-20887 (51027)

HRTrading

Over

Invested

$119.18

Value

$166.77

PnL

+$47.59

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.75

Value

$91.16

PnL

+$5.41

Record

51%

35-33 (68)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.24

Value

$49.99

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

1175-997 (2172)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.54

Value

$27.27

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

3728-3701 (7429)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.67

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.