Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 199.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 66¢ · $91K held · ended Oct 29

Over66¢Under34¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$90.9K

Combined PnL

$825.5

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 65.5¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$43.3K

Total Shares86,749

Combined PnL-$440.06

Under5 traders

Total Value$44.3K

Total Shares86,866

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MD MD14	Overavg 50¢	$40.4K	$40.4K	+$0	68% 294-138 (432)
yabanciCTR	Underavg 50¢	$30.5K	$30.5K	+$0	57% 49-37 (86)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$11.5K	$12.3K	+$801.7	49% 569-596 (1165)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 46.2¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$159.17	54% 16897-14158 (31055)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.2¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$95.96
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.6¢	$598.97	$854.1	+$255.13
TA takeormake	Overavg 57¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$469.46	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
NooseracCTR	Underavg 34¢	$951.66	$1.4K	+$447.84	52% 5726-5291 (11017)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Underavg 44.4¢	$805.91	$892.27	+$86.36	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.4¢	$453.73	$505.62	+$51.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$352.18	$386.65	+$34.47
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 44.7¢	$235.68	$266.14	+$30.45	54% 10478-9105 (19583)
latvian.demon	Overavg 51¢	$192.8	$190.91	-$1.89	54% 648-552 (1200)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 45.7¢	$75.26	$93.37	+$18.12	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$28.2	$26.1	-$2.1	51% 35-33 (68)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Overavg 51¢	$3.06	$3.48	+$0.42	51% 681-658 (1339)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 51¢	$3.06	$3.48	+$0.42	67% 23153-11555 (34708)

MD14

Over

Invested

$40,439.48

Value

$40.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

294-138 (432)

yabanciCTR

Under

Invested

$30,505.99

Value

$30.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

49-37 (86)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$11,498.69

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$801.7

Record

49%

569-596 (1165)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,253.58

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$159.17

Record

54%

16897-14158 (31055)

Both legs:

Over$1,654.6146.2¢-$95.96

Under$598.9739.6¢+$255.13

takeormake

Over

Invested

$2,822.28

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$469.46

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$951.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$447.84

Record

52%

5726-5291 (11017)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Under

Invested

$805.91

Value

$892.27

PnL

+$86.36

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

Both legs:

Under$453.7344.4¢+$51.89

Over$352.1846¢+$34.47

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$235.68

Value

$266.14

PnL

+$30.45

Record

54%

10478-9105 (19583)

latvian.demon

Over

Invested

$192.8

Value

$190.91

PnL

-$1.89

Record

54%

648-552 (1200)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75.26

Value

$93.37

PnL

+$18.12

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.2

Value

$26.1

PnL

-$2.1

Record

51%

35-33 (68)

seeeeeeb<$100

Over

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.42

Record

51%

681-658 (1339)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.42

Record

67%

23153-11555 (34708)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 66%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.