Spread: Clippers (-4.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (57%) · Lakers at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
7
Lakers 57%
$4.7K
-$466.87
55.4¢ → 99¢
+79% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Lakersavg 54¢ | $3.1K | $2.9K | -$228 | 49% 569-596 (1165) |
SA SadSquid54333CTR | Clippersavg 47¢ | $940 | $790 | -$150 | 60% 162-108 (270) |
BU BullishBarb | Lakersavg 60.9¢ | $599.85 | $515 | -$84.85 | 43% 3005-4028 (7033) |
SU SunlineTicker | Lakersavg 60¢ | $363 | $302.5 | -$60.5 | 62% 4027-2466 (6493) |
 cruzNBACTR | Clippersavg 34.6¢ | $95.95 | $138.5 | +$42.55 | 42% 396-548 (944) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Clippersavg 39.5¢ | $53.38 | $67.5 | +$14.12 | 50% 6832-6841 (13673) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Lakersavg 98.5¢ | $2.69 | $2.5 | -$0.19 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$3,078
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$228
Record
49%
569-596 (1165)
Invested
$940
Value
$790
PnL
-$150
Record
60%
162-108 (270)
Invested
$599.85
Value
$515
PnL
-$84.85
Record
43%
3005-4028 (7033)
Invested
$363
Value
$302.5
PnL
-$60.5
Record
62%
4027-2466 (6493)
cruzNBACTRInvested
$95.95
Value
$138.5
PnL
+$42.55
Record
42%
396-548 (944)
Invested
$53.38
Value
$67.5
PnL
+$14.12
Record
50%
6832-6841 (13673)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.69
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.