Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Lakers (59%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Clippers (-3.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (57%) · Clippers at 42¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
7
Clippers 57%
$1.4K
-$1.58
40.3¢ → 41.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TheOneto3CTR | Clippersavg 41¢ | $644.3 | $652.15 | +$7.86 | 51% 458-439 (897) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Lakersavg 58.9¢ | $315.62 | $315.49 | -$0.13 | 54% 16875-14147 (31022) |
 VeryLucky888 | Lakersavg 59¢ | $295 | $292.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 33.5¢ | $88.28 | $91.46 | +$3.18 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
 cruzNBACTR<$100 | Clippersavg 39¢ | $39.03 | $30.03 | -$9 | 42% 395-547 (942) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Lakersavg 59¢ | $23.6 | $23.4 | -$0.2 | 50% 3717-3691 (7408) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 42¢ | $2.73 | $1.95 | -$0.78 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
TheOneto3CTRInvested
$644.3
Value
$652.15
PnL
+$7.86
Record
51%
458-439 (897)
Invested
$315.62
Value
$315.49
PnL
-$0.13
Record
54%
16875-14147 (31022)
VeryLucky888Invested
$295
Value
$292.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$88.28
Value
$91.46
PnL
+$3.18
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
cruzNBACTR<$100Invested
$39.03
Value
$30.03
PnL
-$9
Record
42%
395-547 (942)
Invested
$23.6
Value
$23.4
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
3717-3691 (7408)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.73
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$0.78
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.