Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Lakers (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Clippers (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (60%) · Clippers at 48¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
5
Clippers 60%
1 arb excluded
$8.2K
-$11.07
46.4¢ → 47.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Clippersavg 50¢ | $6.1K | $5.9K | -$209.44 | 54% 16875-14147 (31022) |
| └ Clippers leg | Clippersavg 50¢ | $4.6K | $4.4K | -$226.83 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 51.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$17.39 | |
 TheOneto3CTR | Clippersavg 48¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$13.45 | 51% 458-439 (897) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Clippersavg 40.8¢ | $302.84 | $285.86 | -$16.98 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
 HRTrading | Lakersavg 50¢ | $130.11 | $136.62 | +$6.51 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
HI hithitfar | Lakersavg 50¢ | $95 | $116.85 | +$21.85 | 57% 561-426 (987) |
 cruzNBACTR<$100 | Clippersavg 43¢ | $86 | $77 | -$9 | 42% 395-547 (942) |
Invested
$6,105.9
Value
$5.9K
PnL
-$209.44
Record
54%
16875-14147 (31022)
Both legs:
TheOneto3CTRInvested
$1,691.13
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$13.45
Record
51%
458-439 (897)
Invested
$302.84
Value
$285.86
PnL
-$16.98
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
HRTradingInvested
$130.11
Value
$136.62
PnL
+$6.51
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$95
Value
$116.85
PnL
+$21.85
Record
57%
561-426 (987)
cruzNBACTR<$100Invested
$86
Value
$77
PnL
-$9
Record
42%
395-547 (942)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.