Spread: Lakers (-9.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 80¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 29

Lakers80¢Clippers20¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$256.09

Smart Money Entry

38.5¢ → 80¢

+108% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

3 of 6 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers80%

Clippers20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$866.58

Total Shares2,276

Combined PnL-$8.73

Clippers3 traders

Total Value$568.57

Total Shares1,496

Combined PnL-$247.36

Lakers — 50%Clippers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Clippersavg 46.3¢	$4.0K	$4.2K	+$157.83	54% 16897-14158 (31055)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46.3¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$183.38
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 50.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$25.56
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Clippersavg 36.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$28.82	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 36.3¢	$656.82	$677.63	+$20.8
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 61.6¢	$539.54	$547.56	+$8.02
TO torta.tech	Lakersavg 39.1¢	$810.15	$777.38	-$32.78	63% 7987-4779 (12766)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Clippersavg 41.9¢	$645.26	$666.72	+$21.46	49% 569-596 (1165)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 41.9¢	$479.17	$469.42	-$9.75
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 49.7¢	$166.09	$197.3	+$31.21
BU BullishBarbCTR	Clippersavg 55¢	$622.34	$424.36	-$197.98	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Clippersavg 54.1¢	$181.12	$132.33	-$48.79	54% 10478-9105 (19583)
HRTradingARB<$100	Clippersavg 44.9¢	$104.9	$64.45	-$40.46	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 44.9¢	$96.02	$33.18	-$62.84
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 24¢	$8.88	$31.27	+$22.39
poshposh<$100	Lakersavg 24¢	$25.03	$52.16	+$27.12	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Lakersavg 40.6¢	$40.12	$37.05	-$3.07	53% 6109-5348 (11457)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Clippersavg 43¢	$12.47	$11.89	-$0.58	51% 35-33 (68)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3,996.39

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$157.83

Record

54%

16897-14158 (31055)

Both legs:

Clippers$2,030.9346.3¢+$183.38

Lakers$1,965.4650.2¢-$25.56

takeormakeARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$1,196.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$28.82

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

Both legs:

Clippers$656.8236.3¢+$20.8

Lakers$539.5461.6¢+$8.02

torta.tech

Lakers

Invested

$810.15

Value

$777.38

PnL

-$32.78

Record

63%

7987-4779 (12766)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$645.26

Value

$666.72

PnL

+$21.46

Record

49%

569-596 (1165)

Both legs:

Clippers$479.1741.9¢-$9.75

Lakers$166.0949.7¢+$31.21

BullishBarbCTR

Clippers

Invested

$622.34

Value

$424.36

PnL

-$197.98

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

justaluckydudeCTR

Clippers

Invested

$181.12

Value

$132.33

PnL

-$48.79

Record

54%

10478-9105 (19583)

HRTradingARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$104.9

Value

$64.45

PnL

-$40.46

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

Both legs:

Clippers$96.0244.9¢-$62.84

Lakers$8.8824¢+$22.39

poshposh<$100

Lakers

Invested

$25.03

Value

$52.16

PnL

+$27.12

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Lakers

Invested

$40.12

Value

$37.05

PnL

-$3.07

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$12.47

Value

$11.89

PnL

-$0.58

Record

51%

35-33 (68)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

3 of 6 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.