Spread: Lakers (-7.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (40%) · Clippers at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29

Lakers28¢Clippers72¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 40%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$81.74

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 71.5¢

+19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers28%

Clippers72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,857

Combined PnL+$79.16

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$509.89

Total Shares1,214

Combined PnL+$2.58

Clippers — 40%Lakers — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Clippersavg 60¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$12.97	54% 16875-14147 (31022)
BU BullishBarb	Clippersavg 61.1¢	$539.93	$632.06	+$92.13	38% 848-1408 (2256)
GO goldmynameCTR	Lakersavg 40¢	$1.4K	$490.99	+$1.17	60% 117-77 (194)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Lakersavg 39.5¢	$15.39	$16.38	+$0.99	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Lakersavg 35¢	$2.1	$2.52	+$0.42	49% 1127-1157 (2284)

HomeRunHazard

Clippers

Invested

$1,528.18

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$12.97

Record

54%

16875-14147 (31022)

BullishBarb

Clippers

Invested

$539.93

Value

$632.06

PnL

+$92.13

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

goldmynameCTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,355.86

Value

$490.99

PnL

+$1.17

Record

60%

117-77 (194)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$15.39

Value

$16.38

PnL

+$0.99

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

1127-1157 (2284)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.