Spread: Lakers (-5.5)
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (38%) · Clippers at 53¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
8
Clippers 38%
$12.4K
-$2.21
53.2¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | Clippersavg 53¢ | $5.3K | $5.3K | +$50 | 54% 1174-996 (2170) |
WO woshikd99CTR | Lakersavg 47¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$21.55 | 50% 31-31 (62) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Lakersavg 46.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$4.26 | 54% 16861-14141 (31002) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Clippersavg 54¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$23.14 | 73% 3567-1310 (4877) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Lakersavg 47¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$11.55 | 38% 847-1408 (2255) |
GO goldmynameCTR | Lakersavg 46¢ | $873.72 | $860.2 | -$0 | 60% 117-77 (194) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Clippersavg 54¢ | $29.92 | $29.63 | +$0.01 | 58% 28119-20724 (48843) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Lakersavg 47¢ | $22.56 | $22.32 | -$0.24 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
Invested
$5,299.96
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$50
Record
54%
1174-996 (2170)
Invested
$2,025.61
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$21.55
Record
50%
31-31 (62)
Invested
$1,719.67
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$4.26
Record
54%
16861-14141 (31002)
Invested
$1,249.56
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$23.14
Record
73%
3567-1310 (4877)
Invested
$1,165.91
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$11.55
Record
38%
847-1408 (2255)
Invested
$873.72
Value
$860.2
PnL
-$0
Record
60%
117-77 (194)
Invested
$29.92
Value
$29.63
PnL
+$0.01
Record
58%
28119-20724 (48843)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$22.56
Value
$22.32
PnL
-$0.24
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.