Spread: Lakers (-4.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (50%) · Clippers at 51¢ · $24K held · ends Oct 29

Lakers49¢Clippers51¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.2K

Combined PnL

-$117.42

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 51¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers49%

Clippers51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers4 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares22,603

Combined PnL-$185.23

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,360

Combined PnL+$67.81

Clippers — 50%Lakers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ArielFilipino	Clippersavg 52.4¢	$11.2K	$11.0K	-$195.25	61% 96-62 (158)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Lakersavg 47.7¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$84.64	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 47.7¢	$5.1K	$5.2K	+$84.04
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0.6
PP ppku6298CTR	Lakersavg 48¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.92	44% 73-93 (166)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Lakersavg 47¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$47.58	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Lakersavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$25.46	38% 848-1408 (2256)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 48¢	$693.24	$707.68	+$7.22
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 49.8¢	$540.54	$553.35	+$18.24
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Lakersavg 48.1¢	$480.66	$485	+$4.34	53% 5499-4842 (10341)
SU SunlineTicker	Clippersavg 48¢	$390.96	$399.1	+$8.14	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
FO Forecastication2	Clippersavg 50.6¢	$261.95	$263.28	+$2.01	50% 6813-6826 (13639)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Clippersavg 50¢	$13.5	$13.23	-$0.14	58% 28121-20725 (48846)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.43	-$0.03	47% 2041-2345 (4386)

ArielFilipino

Clippers

Invested

$11,159.08

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$195.25

Record

61%

96-62 (158)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$7,591.43

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$84.64

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

Both legs:

Lakers$5,088.4647.7¢+$84.04

Clippers$2,502.9751¢+$0.6

ppku6298CTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,527.93

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.92

Record

44%

73-93 (166)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,490.94

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$47.58

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,233.78

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$25.46

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

Both legs:

Lakers$693.2448¢+$7.22

Clippers$540.5449.8¢+$18.24

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Lakers

Invested

$480.66

Value

$485

PnL

+$4.34

Record

53%

5499-4842 (10341)

SunlineTicker

Clippers

Invested

$390.96

Value

$399.1

PnL

+$8.14

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

Forecastication2

Clippers

Invested

$261.95

Value

$263.28

PnL

+$2.01

Record

50%

6813-6826 (13639)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Clippers

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.23

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.