Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (29%) · Clippers at 56¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 29

Lakers44¢Clippers56¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

-$289.96

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers44%

Clippers56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,419

Combined PnL-$11.13

Lakers5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,250

Combined PnL-$278.82

Clippers — 29%Lakers — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Clippersavg 49.5¢	$8.1K	$9.1K	+$971.48	62% 4022-2463 (6485)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 49.5¢	$6.0K	$6.9K	+$963.31
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 42.3¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$8.17
HO HomeRunHazard	Clippersavg 56.6¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$11.55	54% 16875-14147 (31022)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Lakersavg 50.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$126.96	52% 318-288 (606)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Clippersavg 53.3¢	$858.46	$866.75	+$8.29	38% 848-1408 (2256)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 53.3¢	$575.96	$610.1	+$34.14
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 47.9¢	$282.5	$256.65	-$25.85
poshposhCTR	Lakersavg 53¢	$795	$652.5	-$142.5	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
HI hithitfarCTR<$100	Lakersavg 50¢	$95	$86.45	-$8.55	57% 561-426 (987)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Lakersavg 53¢	$9.01	$8.5	-$0.51	49% 1127-1157 (2284)
PP ppku6298<$100	Clippersavg 44¢	$3.07	$3.49	+$0.42	44% 73-93 (166)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Lakersavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.5	-$0.3	47% 2067-2357 (4424)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$8,096.3

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$971.48

Record

62%

4022-2463 (6485)

Both legs:

Clippers$5,953.0649.5¢+$963.31

Lakers$2,143.2442.3¢+$8.17

HomeRunHazard

Clippers

Invested

$2,544.35

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$11.55

Record

54%

16875-14147 (31022)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,281.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$126.96

Record

52%

318-288 (606)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$858.46

Value

$866.75

PnL

+$8.29

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

Both legs:

Clippers$575.9653.3¢+$34.14

Lakers$282.547.9¢-$25.85

poshposhCTR

Lakers

Invested

$795

Value

$652.5

PnL

-$142.5

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

hithitfarCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$95

Value

$86.45

PnL

-$8.55

Record

57%

561-426 (987)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$9.01

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$0.51

Record

49%

1127-1157 (2284)

ppku6298<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3.07

Value

$3.49

PnL

+$0.42

Record

44%

73-93 (166)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

2067-2357 (4424)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.