Spread: Lakers (-1.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (40%) · Clippers at 54¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 29

Lakers47¢Clippers53¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

-$58.22

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 53.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers47%

Clippers54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers4 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares13,457

Combined PnL-$76.25

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,434

Combined PnL+$18.03

Clippers — 40%Lakers — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Clippersavg 47.5¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$311.9	62% 4022-2463 (6485)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 47.5¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$272.3
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 46.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$39.6
HO HomeRunHazard	Clippersavg 54.3¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$117.71	54% 16875-14147 (31022)
BR BreakTheBank	Clippersavg 53¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$27.71	43% 541-719 (1260)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Lakersavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$22.65	38% 848-1408 (2256)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Clippersavg 53¢	$530	$545	+$15	53% 5506-4851 (10357)
HI hi774cCTR	Lakersavg 45¢	$438.79	$443.67	+$4.88	52% 4656-4366 (9022)
RollAwayTheDewARB<$100	Lakersavg 51.1¢	$176.09	$168.28	-$7.8	52% 318-288 (606)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 51.1¢	$133.81	$127.08	-$6.73
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 52.8¢	$42.28	$41.2	-$1.07
RN1	Clippersavg 53¢	$132.5	$131.25	-$1.25	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
HI hithitfarCTR	Lakersavg 53¢	$100.7	$92.15	-$8.55	57% 561-426 (987)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Lakersavg 46¢	$72.24	$73.02	+$0.79	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
poshposhCTR<$100	Lakersavg 46.6¢	$64.1	$65.37	+$1.27	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Lakersavg 53¢	$53	$50	-$3	53% 11467-9983 (21450)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3,876.45

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$311.9

Record

62%

4022-2463 (6485)

Both legs:

Clippers$2,589.2547.5¢+$272.3

Lakers$1,287.246.1¢+$39.6

HomeRunHazard

Clippers

Invested

$3,616.26

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$117.71

Record

54%

16875-14147 (31022)

BreakTheBank

Clippers

Invested

$2,937.61

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$27.71

Record

43%

541-719 (1260)

BullishBarbCTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,417.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$22.65

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Clippers

Invested

$530

Value

$545

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5506-4851 (10357)

hi774cCTR

Lakers

Invested

$438.79

Value

$443.67

PnL

+$4.88

Record

52%

4656-4366 (9022)

RollAwayTheDewARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$176.09

Value

$168.28

PnL

-$7.8

Record

52%

318-288 (606)

Both legs:

Lakers$133.8151.1¢-$6.73

Clippers$42.2852.8¢-$1.07

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$132.5

Value

$131.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

hithitfarCTR

Lakers

Invested

$100.7

Value

$92.15

PnL

-$8.55

Record

57%

561-426 (987)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$72.24

Value

$73.02

PnL

+$0.79

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

poshposhCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$64.1

Value

$65.37

PnL

+$1.27

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$53

Value

$50

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

11467-9983 (21450)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.