Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Lakers (52%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lakers (-15.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (57%) · Clippers at 48¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
7
Clippers 57%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
-$345.11
70.6¢ → 48¢
-32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA gagarin59 | Lakersavg 40¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$307.5 | 52% 658-612 (1270) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Clippersavg 60¢ | $654.6 | $643.69 | -$10.91 | 54% 3829-3308 (7137) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Clippersavg 81.3¢ | $1.3K | $637.48 | -$642.71 | 43% 3005-4028 (7033) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Clippersavg 67.5¢ | $434.2 | $394.14 | -$40.06 | 54% 10478-9105 (19583) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 43.8¢ | $179.81 | $207.52 | +$27.72 | |
| └ Clippers leg | Clippersavg 67.5¢ | $254.39 | $186.62 | -$67.77 | |
SE seeeeeebCTR | Clippersavg 63.9¢ | $255.7 | $200 | -$55.7 | 51% 681-658 (1339) |
PA pauleta23CTR | Clippersavg 64¢ | $255.69 | $199.74 | -$55.95 | 67% 23153-11555 (34708) |
 poshposh | Lakersavg 13¢ | $39.08 | $150.29 | +$111.21 | 59% 9529-6541 (16070) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Lakersavg 21¢ | $1.05 | $2.5 | +$1.45 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$1,230
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$307.5
Record
52%
658-612 (1270)
Invested
$654.6
Value
$643.69
PnL
-$10.91
Record
54%
3829-3308 (7137)
Invested
$1,280.19
Value
$637.48
PnL
-$642.71
Record
43%
3005-4028 (7033)
Invested
$434.2
Value
$394.14
PnL
-$40.06
Record
54%
10478-9105 (19583)
Both legs:
Invested
$255.7
Value
$200
PnL
-$55.7
Record
51%
681-658 (1339)
Invested
$255.69
Value
$199.74
PnL
-$55.95
Record
67%
23153-11555 (34708)
poshposhInvested
$39.08
Value
$150.29
PnL
+$111.21
Record
59%
9529-6541 (16070)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1.45
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.