Spread: Lakers (-11.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (73%) · Lakers at 71¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 29

Lakers71¢Clippers29¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$59.35

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 71¢

+29% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers71%

Clippers29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers8 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares15,597

Combined PnL+$37.56

Clippers3 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares10,541

Combined PnL+$21.79

Lakers — 73%Clippers — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Lakersavg 55¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$60	49% 31-32 (63)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 44.6¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$109.86	49% 569-596 (1165)
Nooserac	Lakersavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0	52% 5726-5291 (11017)
GA gagarin59	Lakersavg 56¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$13.62	52% 658-612 (1270)
TA takeormakeCTR	Clippersavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$67.05	54% 3829-3308 (7137)
heyboy800CTR	Clippersavg 58.2¢	$1,000	$978.98	-$21.02	61% 885-558 (1443)
RollAwayTheDew	Lakersavg 56¢	$484.96	$480.63	-$4.33	53% 326-291 (617)
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 48.2¢	$453.3	$429.75	-$23.55	54% 16897-14158 (31055)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Clippersavg 73.4¢	$185.22	$184.38	-$0.84	43% 3005-4028 (7033)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 32.9¢	$67.78	$109.18	+$41.4
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 73.4¢	$117.44	$75.2	-$42.24
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Lakersavg 42.3¢	$136.06	$143.85	+$7.79	54% 10478-9105 (19583)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 42.3¢	$68.41	$87.27	+$18.86
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 55¢	$67.65	$56.58	-$11.07
HRTrading<$100	Lakersavg 25.8¢	$26.4	$45.56	+$19.16	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
TO torta.tech<$100	Lakersavg 29¢	$14.5	$14.5	-$0	63% 7987-4779 (12766)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Lakersavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.45	-$0.1	53% 6109-5348 (11457)

luckycat888888

Lakers

Invested

$3,300

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$60

Record

49%

31-32 (63)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$3,013.03

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$109.86

Record

49%

569-596 (1165)

Nooserac

Lakers

Invested

$2,800

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5726-5291 (11017)

gagarin59

Lakers

Invested

$1,525.44

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$13.62

Record

52%

658-612 (1270)

takeormakeCTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,219.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$67.05

Record

54%

3829-3308 (7137)

heyboy800CTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,000

Value

$978.98

PnL

-$21.02

Record

61%

885-558 (1443)

RollAwayTheDew

Lakers

Invested

$484.96

Value

$480.63

PnL

-$4.33

Record

53%

326-291 (617)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$453.3

Value

$429.75

PnL

-$23.55

Record

54%

16897-14158 (31055)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$185.22

Value

$184.38

PnL

-$0.84

Record

43%

3005-4028 (7033)

Both legs:

Lakers$67.7832.9¢+$41.4

Clippers$117.4473.4¢-$42.24

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$136.06

Value

$143.85

PnL

+$7.79

Record

54%

10478-9105 (19583)

Both legs:

Lakers$68.4142.3¢+$18.86

Clippers$67.6555¢-$11.07

HRTrading<$100

Lakers

Invested

$26.4

Value

$45.56

PnL

+$19.16

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

torta.tech<$100

Lakers

Invested

$14.5

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

7987-4779 (12766)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

6109-5348 (11457)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.