Lakers vs. Clippers

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (55%) · Lakers at 64¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 29

Lakers64¢Clippers36¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 55%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

-$2.8

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 63.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers64%

Clippers37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares8,547

Combined PnL-$22.79

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,011

Combined PnL+$19.99

Clippers — 45%Lakers — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLakers 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Clippersavg 36.7¢	$8.0K	$2.9K	-$19.93	49% 85-89 (174)
WO woshikd99	Lakersavg 65¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$0	52% 28-26 (54)
AC acorp	Lakersavg 64¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$13.64	49% 613-627 (1240)
VeryLucky888	Lakersavg 63¢	$114.92	$118.56	+$3.65	58% 40728-29460 (70188)
funnydayCTR<$100	Clippersavg 37¢	$74	$73	-$1	50% 3892-3871 (7763)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Clippersavg 37¢	$74.52	$72.51	-$2.01	53% 15728-13898 (29626)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Clippersavg 36¢	$41.16	$41.16	+$0	52% 308-285 (593)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Lakersavg 63.6¢	$38.76	$39.16	+$0.4	58% 28094-20712 (48806)
BU BullishBarb<$100	Lakersavg 59.8¢	$29.77	$31.62	+$1.84	1% 4-285 (289)
HRTrading<$100	Lakersavg 64¢	$18.27	$18.65	+$0.46	53% 3017-2681 (5698)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Clippersavg 36¢	$11.25	$11.41	+$0.16	50% 6790-6820 (13610)

DolphinBallerCTR

Clippers

Invested

$7,999.95

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$19.93

Record

49%

85-89 (174)

woshikd99

Lakers

Invested

$1,942.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

28-26 (54)

acorp

Lakers

Invested

$1,745.28

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$13.64

Record

49%

613-627 (1240)

VeryLucky888

Lakers

Invested

$114.92

Value

$118.56

PnL

+$3.65

Record

58%

40728-29460 (70188)

funnydayCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$74

Value

$73

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3892-3871 (7763)

CannaeCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$74.52

Value

$72.51

PnL

-$2.01

Record

53%

15728-13898 (29626)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$41.16

Value

$41.16

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

308-285 (593)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Lakers

Invested

$38.76

Value

$39.16

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

28094-20712 (48806)

BullishBarb<$100

Lakers

Invested

$29.77

Value

$31.62

PnL

+$1.84

Record

4-285 (289)

HRTrading<$100

Lakers

Invested

$18.27

Value

$18.65

PnL

+$0.46

Record

53%

3017-2681 (5698)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.41

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

6790-6820 (13610)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLakers 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.