Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $437 held · ended Oct 31

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$436.58

Combined PnL

$16.85

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 56¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$314.71

Total Shares562

Combined PnL+$51.79

Over2 traders

Total Value$121.88

Total Shares277

Combined PnL-$34.94

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 60¢	$252.49	$304.08	+$51.59	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$61.2	$67.32	+$5.36	50% 6989-6984 (13973)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$63.23	$54.56	-$40.3	48% 805-879 (1684)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 54.9¢	$10.42	$10.63	+$0.21	52% 4302-3911 (8213)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$252.49

Value

$304.08

PnL

+$51.59

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$61.2

Value

$67.32

PnL

+$5.36

Record

50%

6989-6984 (13973)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.23

Value

$54.56

PnL

-$40.3

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$10.42

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.