Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 57¢ · $549 held · ends Oct 31

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$549.29

Combined PnL

$9.89

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 57¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$367.63

Total Shares598

Combined PnL+$29.63

Under3 traders

Total Value$181.66

Total Shares464

Combined PnL-$19.74

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 56.6¢	$327.37	$355.75	+$28.37	54% 17115-14329 (31444)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 43.3¢	$162.5	$143.52	-$17.98	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 44.1¢	$25.58	$25.23	-$0.35	58% 28411-20971 (49382)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100	Underavg 42.7¢	$14.32	$12.91	-$1.41	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Overavg 55¢	$10.63	$11.89	+$1.26	38% 377-619 (996)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$327.37

Value

$355.75

PnL

+$28.37

Record

54%

17115-14329 (31444)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$162.5

Value

$143.52

PnL

-$17.98

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.58

Value

$25.23

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

28411-20971 (49382)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.32

Value

$12.91

PnL

-$1.41

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

Oddstorm<$100

Over

Invested

$10.63

Value

$11.89

PnL

+$1.26

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.