Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 51¢ · $80 held · ended Oct 31

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$79.99

Combined PnL

$18.5

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$74.74

Total Shares141

Combined PnL+$20.75

Over1 trader

Total Value$5.25

Total Shares13

Combined PnL-$2.25

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 32¢	$31.68	$50.49	+$18.81	63% 8113-4855 (12968)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 52.9¢	$20.6	$21.7	+$1.09	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$7.5	$5.25	-$2.25	58% 28550-21073 (49623)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.7	$2.55	+$0.85	53% 6124-5371 (11495)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$31.68

Value

$50.49

PnL

+$18.81

Record

63%

8113-4855 (12968)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$20.6

Value

$21.7

PnL

+$1.09

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$2.25

Record

58%

28550-21073 (49623)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.85

Record

53%

6124-5371 (11495)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.