Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$1.5K
$203.7
43.7¢ → 94¢
+115% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO torta.tech | Underavg 35¢ | $350 | $530 | +$180 | 63% 8113-4855 (12968) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 53¢ | $507.12 | $507.12 | +$9.57 | 48% 805-879 (1684) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 47.4¢ | $427.03 | $423.66 | -$3.37 | 53% 4003-3486 (7489) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 48.5¢ | $20.59 | $28.86 | +$8.27 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100 | Underavg 35.3¢ | $17.66 | $26.5 | +$8.84 | 53% 6124-5371 (11495) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 50.7¢ | $8.56 | $8.95 | +$0.39 | 57% 13705-10482 (24187) |
Invested
$350
Value
$530
PnL
+$180
Record
63%
8113-4855 (12968)
Invested
$507.12
Value
$507.12
PnL
+$9.57
Record
48%
805-879 (1684)
Invested
$427.03
Value
$423.66
PnL
-$3.37
Record
53%
4003-3486 (7489)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$20.59
Value
$28.86
PnL
+$8.27
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
Invested
$17.66
Value
$26.5
PnL
+$8.84
Record
53%
6124-5371 (11495)
Invested
$8.56
Value
$8.95
PnL
+$0.39
Record
57%
13705-10482 (24187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.