Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (89%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 12¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$723.68

Smart Money Entry

40.3¢ → 11.5¢

-71% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,097

Combined PnL+$120.84

Under6 traders

Total Value$839.49

Total Shares2,946

Combined PnL-$844.52

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 40.8¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$138.16	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 39.5¢	$667.04	$649.72	-$17.32	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
CH chiefphi	Underavg 60¢	$1.2K	$350	-$850	51% 102-98 (200)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 50.2¢	$348.6	$347.02	-$1.58	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$212.58	$217.42	+$4.84	48% 805-879 (1684)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$160.12	$161.61	+$1.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$52.46	$55.81	+$3.35
GA gagarin59<$100	Underavg 55¢	$80.3	$78.11	-$2.19	52% 687-645 (1332)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 44.6¢	$33.37	$39.97	+$6.6	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 59¢	$20.99	$24.02	+$3.02	59% 30430-21141 (51571)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 35.7¢	$0.75	$0.37	-$0.38	57% 13705-10482 (24187)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,043.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$138.16

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$667.04

Value

$649.72

PnL

-$17.32

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

chiefphi

Under

Invested

$1,200

Value

$350

PnL

-$850

Record

51%

102-98 (200)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$348.6

Value

$347.02

PnL

-$1.58

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$212.58

Value

$217.42

PnL

+$4.84

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

Both legs:

Under$160.1249.5¢+$1.5

Over$52.4647¢+$3.35

gagarin59<$100

Under

Invested

$80.3

Value

$78.11

PnL

-$2.19

Record

52%

687-645 (1332)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$33.37

Value

$39.97

PnL

+$6.6

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$20.99

Value

$24.02

PnL

+$3.02

Record

59%

30430-21141 (51571)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0.38

Record

57%

13705-10482 (24187)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.