Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 85¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$9.8K
$-7.2K
52¢ → 84.5¢
+62% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 85%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $5.3K | $5.5K | +$254.05 | 48% 805-879 (1684) |
TI timezonewarrior | Underavg 52¢ | $5.4K | $1.2K | $-4.2K | 44% 104-130 (234) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 46.2¢ | $806.78 | $1.0K | +$223.58 | 53% 4003-3486 (7489) |
LU luckycat888888 | Underavg 53¢ | $4.2K | $920 | $-3.3K | 51% 55-52 (107) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 48.1¢ | $899.33 | $778.63 | -$120.7 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Underavg 45.5¢ | $336.93 | $344.36 | +$7.43 | 54% 10684-9283 (19967) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.5¢ | $201.94 | $193.14 | -$8.8 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.4¢ | $134.99 | $151.22 | +$16.23 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 52.2¢ | $19.97 | $28.5 | +$8.53 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $10.64 | $2.85 | -$7.79 | 57% 13705-10482 (24187) |
Invested
$5,277.38
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$254.05
Record
48%
805-879 (1684)
Invested
$5,408
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
44%
104-130 (234)
Invested
$806.78
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$223.58
Record
53%
4003-3486 (7489)
Invested
$4,240
Value
$920
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
51%
55-52 (107)
Invested
$899.33
Value
$778.63
PnL
-$120.7
Record
59%
45621-31960 (77581)
Invested
$336.93
Value
$344.36
PnL
+$7.43
Record
54%
10684-9283 (19967)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.97
Value
$28.5
PnL
+$8.53
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
Invested
$10.64
Value
$2.85
PnL
-$7.79
Record
57%
13705-10482 (24187)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.