Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 69¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$599.21

Smart Money Entry

41.2¢ → 69¢

+67% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares7,923

Combined PnL-$333.3

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,869

Combined PnL-$265.91

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 42.6¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$390.37	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 53.3¢	$2.5K	$1.7K	-$743.58	48% 805-879 (1684)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$714.51	$1.2K	+$448.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.3¢	$1.7K	$557.44	$-1.2K
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 59¢	$1.2K	$936.78	-$278	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 85.8¢	$569.86	$582.7	+$12.85	50% 6989-6984 (13973)
AW aweso	Underavg 49¢	$1.5K	$510	-$960	48% 42-45 (87)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 42.2¢	$179.82	$242.9	+$63.08	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 13¢	$24.2	$164.55	+$140.35	52% 377-342 (719)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 14.1¢	$13.98	$34.27	+$37.47	57% 13705-10482 (24187)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 71.5¢	$26.66	$25.91	-$0.76	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 41¢	$7.79	$3.23	-$4.56	59% 30430-21141 (51571)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,524.27

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$390.37

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,463.84

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$743.58

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

Both legs:

Over$714.5151¢+$448.32

Under$1,749.3353.3¢$-1.2K

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,214.78

Value

$936.78

PnL

-$278

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$569.86

Value

$582.7

PnL

+$12.85

Record

50%

6989-6984 (13973)

aweso

Under

Invested

$1,470

Value

$510

PnL

-$960

Record

48%

42-45 (87)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$179.82

Value

$242.9

PnL

+$63.08

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$24.2

Value

$164.55

PnL

+$140.35

Record

52%

377-342 (719)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$13.98

Value

$34.27

PnL

+$37.47

Record

57%

13705-10482 (24187)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.66

Value

$25.91

PnL

-$0.76

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$7.79

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$4.56

Record

59%

30430-21141 (51571)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.