Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 215.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 57¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over43¢Under57¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$178.8

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 57.5¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,112

Combined PnL+$32.11

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,722

Combined PnL+$146.69

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 55.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$22.38	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$101.94	48% 805-879 (1684)
GA gagarin59	Underavg 48¢	$1.0K	$956.88	-$63.79	52% 687-645 (1332)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 39.5¢	$829.56	$945.96	+$116.4	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
US User7429CTR	Overavg 59.2¢	$116.4	$180.96	+$64.56	55% 8268-6673 (14941)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 54.2¢	$121.95	$129.38	+$7.42	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 77.7¢	$68.03	$54.49	-$13.54	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$38.61	$42.07	+$3.46	59% 30430-21141 (51571)
RN1<$100	Underavg 14¢	$35	$20	-$15	54% 56479-48663 (105142)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 12¢	$0.84	$0.56	-$0.28	57% 13705-10482 (24187)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,090.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$22.38

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,104.66

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$101.94

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

gagarin59

Under

Invested

$1,020.67

Value

$956.88

PnL

-$63.79

Record

52%

687-645 (1332)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$829.56

Value

$945.96

PnL

+$116.4

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

User7429CTR

Over

Invested

$116.4

Value

$180.96

PnL

+$64.56

Record

55%

8268-6673 (14941)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$121.95

Value

$129.38

PnL

+$7.42

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.03

Value

$54.49

PnL

-$13.54

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.61

Value

$42.07

PnL

+$3.46

Record

59%

30430-21141 (51571)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$35

Value

$20

PnL

-$15

Record

54%

56479-48663 (105142)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.28

Record

57%

13705-10482 (24187)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.