Spread: Lakers (-9.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (50%) · Warriors at 99¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 31

Lakers<1¢Warriors>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

$993.78

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 99.1¢

+102% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers1%

Warriors99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors3 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares24,132

Combined PnL+$804.32

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,897

Combined PnL+$189.47

Warriors — 50%Lakers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWarriors 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Warriorsavg 49¢	$10.1K	$11.7K	+$502.03	48% 805-879 (1684)
AW aweso	Warriorsavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$320	48% 42-45 (87)
GA gagarin59CTR	Lakersavg 44¢	$697.09	$999.16	+$302.08	52% 687-645 (1332)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Warriorsavg 54.3¢	$722.58	$765.59	+$43.01	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 54.3¢	$459.64	$482.1	+$22.46
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 39.9¢	$262.94	$283.49	+$20.55
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Lakersavg 50.7¢	$672.87	$571.04	-$101.83	54% 1218-1024 (2242)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Lakersavg 47.4¢	$116.13	$105.35	-$10.78	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
HRTrading<$100	Warriorsavg 85.3¢	$78.23	$60.52	-$17.71	52% 4302-3911 (8213)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Warriors

Invested

$10,142.36

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$502.03

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

aweso

Warriors

Invested

$1,960

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$320

Record

48%

42-45 (87)

gagarin59CTR

Lakers

Invested

$697.09

Value

$999.16

PnL

+$302.08

Record

52%

687-645 (1332)

takeormakeARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$722.58

Value

$765.59

PnL

+$43.01

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

Both legs:

Warriors$459.6454.3¢+$22.46

Lakers$262.9439.9¢+$20.55

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Lakers

Invested

$672.87

Value

$571.04

PnL

-$101.83

Record

54%

1218-1024 (2242)

justaluckydudeCTR

Lakers

Invested

$116.13

Value

$105.35

PnL

-$10.78

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

HRTrading<$100

Warriors

Invested

$78.23

Value

$60.52

PnL

-$17.71

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWarriors 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWarriors 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.